Evolving Standards for Academic Publishing: A q-r Theory

Over the last several decades academic journal articles have become longer and changed in other ways. The review process has also changed – it now often involves extensive revisions of initial submissions. This paper develops a model of evolving standards for academic publishing. Papers are assumed to vary along two quality dimensions: q and r. The former is interpreted as the importance of a paper’s main ideas and the latter as other aspects of quality. Observed trends are thought of as reflecting increases in r-quality. A static equilibrium model in which an arbitrary social norm determines how q and r are weighted is used to discuss comparative statics explanations for increases in r. The paper then develops a learning model in which referees (who have a biased view of the importance of their own work) try to learn the social norm from observing how their own papers are treated and the decisions editors make on papers they referee. The learning model predicts that social norms will gradually and steadily evolve to increasingly emphasize r-quality. JEL Classification No.: A14, D70, C73 Glenn Ellison Department of Economics Massachusetts Institute of Technology 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 02142-1347